Round 2 plan and recommendations
Ailis's six-test brief and the 26 new files, reviewed against what the live tests have told us so far. Internal: this page carries spend figures.
The short version
- The Fir copies did not get delivery in main, and that is the budget cap, not the creatives. The Christmas ad set went from £3,547 a day to £701 after Evergreen was capped at £2,000 on 26 Oct. Only 1029 got fed (£126). The other four got £7 to £13 each.
- Sunsets done (Casey, 29 Oct): T2 and the Fir Statics campaign are paused, 1063 runs only in Gifting, and 1064, 1056 and 1065 now have copies in the Christmas set. The round 1 sets stay on at reduced budgets as insurance in case those copies starve: T3 £100 (1064), T1 £75 (1056 and three others), T4 £100 (1068 and 1069 still reading). Fir Videos pauses.
- Round 2 is five ad sets, all launched at once (Casey, 29 Oct: everything live now so next week's decisions have data). Grouped by what changes, not by product: review statics (the line), Noël (the angle), Starlight (who tells it), Ailis to camera (the topic), PR (masthead on or off). Each set maps onto a production decision. Testing is held at 20% of daily budget: £675 a day in total, £400 of it on the five new sets and £275 on the round 1 ring-fences, which roll in as they finish.
- Four things need Ailis before build: the no-masthead PR images, one set of Starlight notes, a trim on the refill walkthrough, and confirmation the seven review-still quotes are real reviews.
- Copy is written and on the review page: pott-christmas-round2-copy.pages.dev. Nothing is built in Meta yet.
1. What is running now, and what to do with it
21 to 28 Oct, Meta-reported, 7-day click. 28 Oct is a part day.
| Test | £/day now | Read | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fir Statics campaign | £100 | 1027 £202 / 4 orders / £50 · 1029 £421 / 11 / £38 · 1030 £312 / 9 / £35 | Pause | The winners are known. 1029 is the one Fir copy main is feeding; 1027 is the weakest arm. |
| Fir Videos campaign | £50 | 1033 £766 / 18 / £43 | Keep | Its only funded home. £43 is November break-even. |
| T1 Fir proof | £250 | 1055 £42 · 1056 £37 · 1057 £45 · 1058 £37 (all fed) | Cut to £120 | Answered: the creator demo (1056) is best, all four sit at £37 to £45. Keep as the ring-fence. |
| T2 Fir message | £100 | 1060 £1,233 / 27 / £46 · 1059 and 1061 unfunded for 3 days | Pause | Meta chose the cosy-evening caption and it converts at £46. Nothing more to learn. |
| T3 Starter Pack scent | £300 | 1064 £833 / 30 / £28 (rising) · 1063 £1,443 / 24 / £60 (sliding) · 1062, 1065 unread | Keep | Waits for the Flora four-move agreed on the 28 Oct call. |
| T4 Icicle proof | £200 | 1066, 1067 paused in T4 on 28 Oct · 1069 £165 / 3 on its first fed day · 1068 £16 | Keep ~4 days | Now reading the two ads it never fed. |
2. Why the Fir winners went quiet in main
Christmas ad set spend by day. The lighter block is Ad 1000, still taking about a third of whatever the set gets.
The five Fir copies went live in this set on 27 Oct, the day after the cap. Spend on them since: 1027 £9, 1029 £126, 1030 £7, 1031 £9, 1033 £14. At £701 a day across 24 ads with Ad 1000 and three older ads ahead of them, there is no headroom. The copies are unread, not failed. The lever is the Evergreen budget, not the Fir campaigns.
3. Round 2: five sets, all at once
Every set changes one thing, with its ads competing inside it, one caption, built paused. Budgets below total £400 a day across 21 ads, which is thin: a clean 7-day read wants about £150 per ad. Expect Meta to fund roughly half the arms in week one. An unfunded arm is unread, not a loser, and gets its turn when T3 and T4 roll their £250 into these sets.
Christmas review statics: which line sells?
Launch nowThe question. Which customer line on a still sells: true to life, not fake, fills the room, limited edition, or the pottery?
How it reads. One format throughout, the review card that already works, so the line is the only variable. Five Fir stills and two Starlight. Scent is a known confound: read the Starlight pair against 1066 (the Starlight still already running at £33).
Copy. Ad 1000's live copy pool on every arm (it names all three scents), nothing new to approve.
Watch out. The "Smells like a fir tree, gorgeous!" still is left out: same line as 1027 on a more polished photo, and the Fir test already showed polish does not change the result. Typos "ofr", "cinamon", "begamot". All seven quotes must be genuine reviews.
Noël: which angle makes the scent compelling
Launch nowThe question. Does Noël sell on a personal recommendation, the look of the Pott, or the story behind the scent?
How it reads. Same caption on all arms. All three name cinnamon and clove. Read on cost per order once each arm has £150, with 1064 (sniff plus a named scent, £28) as the benchmark.
Copy. New Noël caption, two options on the review page.
Watch out. The Holly gift-box video names no scent and opens on the present, the frame that got clicks not buyers on 1063. It goes to Gifting instead.
Starlight: who tells the "not too Christmassy" story
Launch nowThe question. Does the non-Christmassy winter idea land better from Ailis, from a creator concept, or from an unboxing?
How it reads. Videos only, so format is constant. The two Starlight stills moved to set 1 with the other statics. Read against 1067 (kiln video, £30) which shares the caption.
Copy. Icicle 02 caption (approved), same as T4, so the arms read against 1066 and 1067.
Watch out. Dropped the 8-second review-on-the-Grand video: the Grand photo lost in the Fir test (1028, £71) and its review line contradicts the still. Starlight notes disagree across the set (see flags).
Ailis explains: which topic earns more creative
Launch nowThe question. With Ailis on camera every time, which subject sells: the wax question, the full refill, sizes, the MatchPott, or the founder story?
How it reads. One speaker, one format, so the topic is the only variable. This is the set that writes next week's shoot list. Read add-to-basket per landing-page view as well as cost per order, since the refill videos are about removing hesitation.
Copy. New Starter Pack caption (how-to, not ritual: the videos are practical), two options on the review page.
Watch out. The walkthrough ends on a pink production slate at 1:07 that must be trimmed. The refill videos say "about 30 seconds" (claim register). Burn times in the sizes video match the website. The creator close-up refill (Ad 1042's video) is held: different speaker.
PR: does press proof improve conversion
Launch nowThe question. Does a newspaper masthead on the image add enough credibility to pay for itself?
How it reads. Ailis supplied the press side only. The clean control is the same three images with the masthead removed and the quote left in. She needs to export those. The A/B tool fits because it is a single-variable test.
Copy. New caption with no proof of its own, so the masthead is the only difference.
Watch out. The Telegraph walkthrough video has no pair, so it runs as a normal ad. In it Ailis says "Diptyque uses paraffin" while the article on screen says a vegetable and paraffin blend, and says six years in business where the market video says four.
4. Where the winners go
The five sets already split by destination. Review statics, Noël and Starlight winners go into the Christmas ad set, and they test on its settings and landing page. Ailis explains and PR winners go into Everything Else (the PR images show the Ocean Pott, and the Ailis videos are not seasonal), and they test on the Starter Pack page. The 28 Oct analysis showed the same ad can do £23 in one main ad set and £57 in another, so matching the test to its destination is worth keeping as a check, even though it does not change the structure.
5. Budget picture: testing held at 20%
| Block | £/day | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Evergreen (capped) | £2,000 | The lever if testing needs more room: every £100 here allows £25 more testing. |
| Gifting | £400 | 1063 now takes about 80% of it. |
| Cook, retention, subscription | £322 | Unchanged. |
| Round 1 ring-fences: T3 £100 (1064), T1 £75 (1056), T4 £100 (1068, 1069) | £275 | Insurance while their Christmas-set copies prove they get delivery. T4 reads in about four days. Each one pauses once its copy in main is spending, and the money rolls into round 2. |
| Round 2: statics £100, Ailis explains £100, PR £80, Noël £60, Starlight £60 | £400 | Five ad sets, 21 ads, all live at once. |
| Testing total | £675 | 19.9% of £3,397. Fir Videos paused to make this fit. |
Round 1 ad sets have been running at £28 to £46 per order against a November break-even of about £43, so the 20% is not a drag on the account. The constraint is the read, not the money: £400 across 21 ads is about £130 per ad over a week if Meta spread it evenly, which it will not. Next week's decisions should treat anything under about £75 as unread.
6. Flags for Ailis before anything is built
The 68-second video ends on a pink card reading "Brand Video, Refill into Pott". It needs trimming before upload.
The claim register bans timed-refill claims until timed on camera. Ad 1042 already runs it, so this is Casey's call. Our captions make no timed claim.
The scent static says "not cinnamon". Ailis's video says bergamot, tonka and cinnamon. The website says bergamot, lemon, mandarin and cinnamon. One version has to be chosen.
The PR video says Pott started six years ago. The founder-at-market video says four.
The Telegraph screenshot in the same video says a vegetable and paraffin blend. Safer to cut the line.
The test needs the same three images without the masthead. Ailis has to export them.
"ofr yourself" (Fir 4), "cinamon" and "begamot" (Starlight scent static). Customer quotes can stay as written if they are genuine; worth asking.
Six new customer quotes. We never run one that is not a real review.
7. What happens next
- Casey sets T3 to £100, T1 to £75, T4 to £100 and pauses Fir Videos.
- Ailis approves copy on the review page and answers the four flags.
- All five ad sets built paused as Ads 1071 onward, screenshots sent, then switched on. The PR set waits only for the no-masthead exports.
- Next week: read every arm, treat under £75 as unread, decide what to shoot next and roll T3 and T4 budget into the funded winners.
- Reads per ad at £150 (winner at or under £40 with 6 or more orders, kill over £75) and per ad set around day 7.
Related pages: Fir test results · Does testing predict main? · What we're testing